S&P 500 violates support, possible top

March 22, 2012 06:58 AM
Will S&P close below 391.50?

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Thursday March, 22

KEY TERMS

OVB      Outside Vertical Bar

VRCB   Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

 

 ENERGIES

 

BRNK12:

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation and close below on 03/15/12 @ 124.63 Downside Targets = 120.81-119.63.
  • Inside VRCB generated on Wednesday.
    • May Brent Crude traded within its most narrow range of 2012 on Wednesday as the market remained virtually flat along with the other “risk” markets.
    • Poor economic conditions in China along with strong technical resistance at the recent contract highs are keeping the market in check for the short term but the overall bias remains positive unless Brent can close below$120.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.09
  • Projected Weekly Range: 6.17
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.51

 

CLK12:

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 03/19/12 @ 107.86. Confirmation of a bottom with a close on 03/19/12 @ 108.56. Upside Target = 110.56 – 112.12.
  • Inside VRCB generated on Wednesday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 105.69. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 105.69 or lower.
    • May Crude was able to advance Wednesday due in part to a storage withdrawal when a build was expected but remained relatively range bound during the rally.
    • Conflicting economic data seems to keep specs guessing but the market is in a solid bull formation and it would take breaking last week’s low @ 104.29  in order for this market to reverse course and not make new contract highs.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.97
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.45
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.26

NGJ12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 03/14/12 @ 2.339. Upside Targets = 2.475-2.542. Confirmation of a bottom with a close on 03/19/12 @ 2.351. Upside Target = 2.475-2.542.
  • Bullish AOVB generated on Wednesday.
    • Nat Gas moved higher on Wednesday as it narrowly missed generating an OVB as the market looks to try and make a move higher in order to avoid generating a WEEKLY TRIPLE VRCB.
    • Gas should trade to 2.443 by the end of the week as it goes after our Short Term upside objective of 2.475.
  • Projected Daily Range: .074
  • Projected Weekly Range: .222
  • Projected Monthly Range: .690

 

METALS

 

GCJ12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top on 03/14/12 with a range violation @ 1663.30 and a close below. Downside Targets 1648.90-1612.20. Extreme Projected Downside 1566.10.
  • Inside VRCB generated Wednesday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1682.90. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1682.90 or higher.
    • April Gold generated its second VRCB n 3 days on Wednesday as the market initially looked to make a move higher but eventually followed a rather “boring” day with the rest of the risk markets and closed in the lower portion of the day’s trading range.
    • Current economic indicators out of China are keeping pressure on the metal not although the market appears to continue to build support at our downside target listed at the beginning on 02/29/2012 @ 1639.70.
  • Projected Daily Range: 19.00
  • Projected Weekly Range: 80.80
  • Projected Monthly Range: 176.10

 

CURRENCIES

ECM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom on a range violation on 03/19/12 @ 1.3196. Confirmation of a bottom on a range violation 03/19/12 @ 1.3245. Upside Target 1.3380 – 1.3470.
  • New highs made on current move Wednesday @ 1.3292. Upside Target over 60% achieved.
    • The Euro took off overnight but was pushed back lower during the pit session to close at its lowest level all week yet just barely above 1.32.
    • If the Euro can push higher through 1.33 it should have no problem going after the initial upside objective of 1.3380 followed by 1.3470.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0104
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0228
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0601

 

INDEXES

 

ESM12:  

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom on 03/08/12 with a range violation @ 1359.75 and a confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1360.50. Upside Target = 1420.25-1450.50.
  • Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1391.50. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 1391.50 or lower.
    • The June S&P’s closed lower for the second consecutive day Wednesday with bullish divergent price action as the market continues to struggle above 1400.
    • This market should experience a slight setback towards 1378.00 – 1370.75 before it can garner more support for a serious push higher to 1450.50.
  • Projected Daily Range: 13.00
  • Projected Weekly Range: 31.50
  • Projected Monthly Range: 73.50
About the Author

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in Energy and Metal commodity futures. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years’ experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. They also called the all-time high day for Gold on September 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012.