commodities

Natural gas moderately bearish, $3.63 pivot level

Kris Hicks
September 11, 2013 06:47 AM
Daily Market Analysis for Wednesday, 09/11/2013

KEY TERMS

OVB      Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB   Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (November ‘13):

  • Short Term Trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 09/09/2013 @ 113.31. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/09/2013 @ 112.33. Downside Targets = 109.65 – 108.36.
  • New lows made on the current move Tuesday @ 109.37.
    • November Brent Crude continued its dramatic fall lower on Tuesday as it breached the $110 mark for the first time in two weeks and closed below the 20-day moving average for the first time in a month.
    • After being sold off over $5 in the first two trading sessions of the week as the Syria trade seemed to be unwinding, look for some substantial backing and filling to occur on Wednesday due to the severe oversold nature of the market.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.39
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.61
  • Projected Monthly Range: 8.68

WTI Crude Oil (October ‘13): (NYMEX:CLV13)

  • Short Term Trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 09/10/2013 @ 108.75. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/10/2013 @ 107.39. Downside Targets = 105.76 – 104.53.
    • October WTI Crude Oil gapped lower from Monday’s settle on Tuesday to fall over $4 from this week’s high as it moved towards the lower end of the ST support trend channel that has held the market lows since July.
    • WTI will need to find support above the $105 mark this week if the uptrend is to remain intact or else risk a severe sell-off that would run stops down to $100.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.28
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.76
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.28

Natural Gas (October ‘13): (NYMEX:NGV13)

  • Short Term Trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/12/2013 @ 3.327. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/14/2013 @ 3.342. Upside Targets = 3.461 – 3.534
  • Possible partial confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 3.516. Possible confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 3.516 or lower.
    • October Natural Gas dropped lower for most of the session on Tuesday before receiving a late day bounce back near the daily mid-range as trader’s look to extended weather forecasts.
    • Tuesday price action should be viewed as moderately bearish but will need to not close above $3.63 in order to keep the pressure applied to the market if it is going to eventually break below $3.50 by week’s end.
  • Projected Daily Range: .102
  • Projected Weekly Range: .210
  • Projected Monthly Range: .497
About the Author

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively.