commodities

Natural gas sees lower lows in forecast

Kris Hicks
October 1, 2013 04:54 AM
Daily Market Analysis for Tuesday, 10/01/2013

KEY TERMS

OVB      Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB   Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (November ‘13):

  • Short Term Trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 09/09/2013 @ 113.31. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/09/2013 @ 112.33. Downside Targets = 104.36 – 102.84
  • New lows made on the current move Monday @ 107.22.
    • November Brent Crude dropped lower in early trading on Monday to its lowest level in seven weeks before rallying after the opening hours of pit session trading to close in the upper 80% of the daily trading range.
    • Brent is still technically stronger than its American counterpart (WTI) and should be able to sustain the pressure that has been applied to the oil markets marginally better and find support near the $105 mark.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.97
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.31
  • Projected Monthly Range: 8.68

WTI Crude Oil (November ‘13): (NYMEX:CLX13)

  • Short Term Trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 09/12/2013 @ 108.96. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/10/2013 @ 107.39. Downside Targets = 99.18 – 96.83
  • New lows made on the current move Monday @ 101.05.
    • November WTI crude oil likewise moved lower on Monday in the initial overnight movement after briefly penetrating the daily support Bollinger Band before staging a slow and steady move higher to close in the upper quartile of the day’s range.
    • Overall WTI is likely to face continued selling to run the stops below $100 near the 200-day moving average currently located just below $98.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.82
  • Projected Weekly Range: 3.66
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.28

Natural Gas (November ‘13): (NYMEX:NGX13)

  • Short Term Trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 09/23/2013 @ 3.31. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/23/2013 @ 3.677. Downside Targets = 3.473 - 3324
    • November natural gas dropped lower in the early goings of Monday’s trading before seeing a late session rally back above the daily mid-range.
    • Monday’s price action can be viewed as bearish-neutral with a lower high and lower low paired with an ambivalent close should lead to a failed rally on Tuesday before new weekly lows heading into the second half of the week.
  • Projected Daily Range: .099
  • Projected Weekly Range: .202
  • Projected Monthly Range: .497
About the Author

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively.