Currency volatility break-out
Most analysts agree that the rate hike will come in mid-2015 or later, but they are more focused on what comes after. Pacing is crucial because the market is always forward-looking. Weller says the “next storyline” is always more important than the current one.
“The pace will make a big difference, and we think the Fed is very antsy to get one rate hike in so it has a little ammo if the economy falls, Weller says. “They’re anxious to get [it] out of the way to normalize policy, but unless we see a big pickup in inflation, the Fed is likely to be very cautious about the pace of rate hikes.”
Until the Fed increases—and even after—analysts agree that the dollar is likely to continue to rise (see “100 in sight,” below).
Weller is still “generally bullish” on the dollar, particularly because the U.S. is the only G10 nation even considering raising interest rates right now (see “Fed on its own,” below). But it’s important to note that the fate of the dollar is still crucially dependent on data.
This could spell trouble for the euro.