Gold expected to rally; crude to reverse ahead of the weekend

May 22, 2015 09:26 AM

Crude oil fell down into a third leg as discussed at the start of the week, but sharp turn up yesterday suggests that move from the high was just another three wave retracement. We see an (a)-(b)-(c) fall which is a structure of a contra-trend movement so bigger uptrend from the last couple of weeks will remain in play for now. An updated count shows that new leg up is now underway after recently broken channel line so we expect rally to continue towards new high, possibly to 65 area. 

On gold we can already count three legs up from 1142, a structure that we highlighted it more than a month back when we identified wave a) from the low. Well, we said that this will be a temporary recovery so now it may then be a time when new bearish reversal should be considered as blue wave (b) can be in late stages of a recovery. At the moment we see a reversal down from the highs which is quite sharp but as long as 1199 holds it can be wave iv. However, USD is very strong this week, so if currency will keep pushing higher then gold will fall to 1178 which would then be our confirmation for a top in place on gold at latest high. In that case we would look back towards 1142 and 1100 levels.

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