What does the bear say?

July 8, 2015 11:48 AM

Crude: Now that we’re moving into the real refining season and on to the August contract, things continue to shift. We can rely on the momentum and the turn with the tide. We’re going to start thinking about a recovery period and the upside target now becomes 6000. It may seem like a long way away, but we do have time here. Moving to CLQ5 with resistance at 5446, 5565 and 5670. We’ll be careful with support here 5277, 5150 and 5042. The front spread moves to QU with resistance at –15 and +08. Support can get back to –44, -63. So hard to find any real commitment here in the market, more or less an exit. Bouncing back here to the close.

Gasoline: We’re moving along with the RBQ5 contract. We’re looking to resistance at 19668, 19886 and 20045. That will give us some room to look back down to support at 19448, 19278 and 19065. The front spread moves on with Q5/U5. Resistance at 608, 632 and 682. Support to 524, 480 and 435. The RBCL moves to Q15 and gets to resistance at 2876, 2924. Support down to 2844, 2796.

Distillate: We’re playing in the here and now with the HOQ15 contract. We’re looking at support to 17175, 16990 and 16785. The resistance looks above to 17356, 17563 and 17749. The front spread is in Q5/U5 with resistance at –140, -95. With the way it’s moving we may see support tested and looking to –172, -211. The HO crack in Q15 sees resistance at 1975, 2004. Support back to 1944, 1908.

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About the Author

Carl Larry is Director of Business Development Consultant for Oil and Gas at Frost & Sullivan. Follow him on Twitter (@oiloutlooks) or on his website. He can also be reached at carl.larry@frost.com