A new hole coming for red eurodollars

March 10, 2016 08:40 AM

My confidence is growing that we shall have a decent decline in Eurodollars Reds prior to the FOMC report. More generally, the bullish contingency has been reducing positions while the bearish contingent has remained skittish. A move lower today, as I expect will energize the bears in front of the FOMC report. The claims data was friendly to shorts, but they are slow to react, instead watching reaction from Draghi. 

The break shown on the chart below steady on day is critical as we see a three session build of support there. A settle lower on day will 'open the dam' to lower prices front end. The long end adds support, but it will be a flattening of the curve over the coming days and the long bond may stay steady or even bid in the face of higher front end rates.

About the Author

Martin McGuire, managing director at TJM Institutional Services