Will US Treasury curve invert?
Since September 2017, the Treasury 5-year/30-yield spread has been on a trajectory toward zero at a pace of roughly 14 basis points per month. If this pace is maintained, the spread should move to negative no later than late-February.
To be clear, I am not stating emphatically that the US Treasury 5’s-30 yield curve will not invert by the end of February. Instead, I’m simply arguing that a growing majority expect a negative yield curve soon. Finally, consider please that as consensus reaches a greater majority, it cannot help but to collect a greater percentage of less gifted prognosticators.