The forthcoming trading week should be less exciting than this week, as the range math for many markets, many symbols of which may be opening near weekly lows, will likely facilitate sideways pricing more so than trending trades. That said, there may be some carryover trending character in the early part of the week before sideways pivot math and ranges that markets may need to digest set in place. There may be some excitement as markets ponder whether Bitcoin is actually making a major swing low, or just throwing a few bullish hammer candlesticks on multiple time frames as part of a short-selling buyback phase.
Actually, I am now theorizing that several markets are on short-term or swing lows and poised for reversal bounces. As I stated last week about Bitcoin and the S&P 500, which did reverse, no guarantees of any reversals are made herein, though.
Addressing last week’s predictions, I correctly identified crude oil, gold, the British pound as trending markets, with oil and the pound dropping over 7%. Additionally, my directional trade call on the pound dropping would’ve been a good trade, if actually placed when I suggested it might reject high pivots and test lower levels at some point. The hypothetical Yen short put spread or long position would’ve also won. My most accurate range projection was soybeans for a second consecutive week, which printed both highs and lows in my trade zones. My worst range prediction is the S&P500 whose lows were far outside my projections, and all extrema. My best avant-garde guess, as if I were psychic was for the “Bitcoin Bounce” news headline, before we find bullish hammers on the daily, weekly and monthly Bitcoin charts. A Bitcoin headline like this.
For market character, most symbols I track have sideways pivots and some sporadic narrow ranges, but the pound, the Aussie dollar, the Japanese yen and the S&P 500 are starting to enter narrow ranges and I can’t rule out a wide-range breakout before next Friday. The sideways pivot setups would likely soften, dampen, and taper the extrema from any such wide-range moves in these, based on probabilities (which are not certainties). If I had to dream up an exciting surprise event for this week, it is, potentially, soybeans with their quiet, little, green doji on Thursday’s daily chart sitting in monthly pivots’ fair valuation, hovering over those pivots almost deceptively distracting traders from its narrow range. Soybeans have tight, trending pivots and a narrow range within that spinning top (describes the toy that the candlestick resembles- not a market top) doji. As a setup, it allured me so that I priced a weekly-options strangle at the 990-970 strikes for about $400.00, but it could go badly several ways. So, my opinion may be to wait to see in which direction it breaks before planning a trade. The weekly chart is bearish, but the monthly beans chart is bullish.
Technical curiosities on charts this week include the S&P 500 daily chart’s positive divergences in OnBalance Volume, Williams %R, and MACD, gold having a 50-simple moving average and 4-hour chart Low-Volume Node at 1304 under a daily chart hammer, and crude oil near the weekly 20-SMA, daily 1,000-SMA, and the monthly 50-SMA setting oil up for an Iron Condor possibility. The 2500 level is the S&P’s Monthly 50-SMA and Monthly S3 pivot.
Projected ranges/trade zones for the week ending Feb. 16.
Highs 2728 2698
Highs 10771- 9549
THIS PAST WEEK’S PREDICTIONS INTO FEB 9 VERSUS ACTUALS:
Lows 2760-46 Actual: 2763-2529
Lows 9060-9030 Actual: .009247-.009087
Lows 12406-12364 Actual: 12508-
Lows 1325-1322 Actual: 1349-1309
Lows 6420-6340 Actual: 6540-5888
Lows 1406-1397 Actual: 1417-1380
Lows 7904-7859 Actual: 7953-
Lows 974-965 Actual: 993-967
Highs 10712- 9889
Lows 7902-6900 Actual: 8660-5880
Note: No guarantees of mathematic accuracy are made herein, as these data are calculated by hand on Friday before markets close. While these numbers do represent my best good faith efforts, markets do change during calculation/report preparation time, including my “actual” range numbers often inserted before noon CST Friday- not market close.