Afternoon look at gold, crude & Treasuries

June 21, 2018 02:02 PM

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Trending down $11 per oz. overnight was already firming into Thursday’s open and improved further through the morning to $1,271.00. None of which is accumulative, but the bounce has room up to 1276.00 just as noise.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Eking out only slightly lower lows down to 16.20 overnight continued to outperform gold, and only traded narrowly around unchanged Thursday. The gap back up to Monday’s 16.45 close and “higher prior lows” there could be tested just as noise.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Probing the already tested 1.1625 target overnight down to 1.1582 was limited to gapping down and then rallying through Thursday morning. The gap back up to Monday’s1.1700 close was filled, as was likely at some point. Closing above 1.1710 would start to signal momentum reversing up, but back under 1.1670 could put into play a retest of Wednesday night’s low.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Probing back under the 143-16 buy signal overnight to attack 143-00 was recovered entirely before Thursday’s open, and intraday action bounced slightly. But there is no new signal or implied strength from the leg.

Crude oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping back down Thursday to Wednesday’s low also retested Wednesday’s gap-fill of Tuesday’s $64.90 per barrel close. It held again, and the 65.65 buy signal was retested. OPEC headlines continued to permeate the environment and would make closing beyond either signal initially suspicious until confirmed the following day.

Natural gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s gap up essentially filled the gap back up to last Friday’s 3.02 close. That still wasn’t greeting the EIA report from a position of strength, since the upside attraction was now neutralized. In fact, the knee-jerk reaction to EIA was a collapse back down to 2.95. That also filled the gap back down to Wednesday’s close, so any bearish scenario should develop without further delay of valid.

About the Author

Rod David develops analytical techniques that are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He primarily analyzes S&Ps, generating several round-turn candidates daily. Rod publishes "Trading Plan" and more each session at the blog