Afternoon look at gold, crude and Treasuries

July 9, 2018 03:07 PM

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s gap up to $1,266.00 per oz. reversed down through the noon hour to test last week’s lower prior highs under 1259.00. The gap back to Friday’s 1256.50 close could be filled, too, but more important to maintaining the rally effort is to close above Monday’s high on Tuesday.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
A pullback to 15.85 would have been optimal before completing a bottom, so rallying prematurely Sunday night can’t afford to much hesitation extending higher. And Monday morning already neutralized the nearest upside objective, filling the week-old gap up to 16.25. Closing higher Tuesday would form a bottom, and overcome the risk of a deeper pullback.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s “ineffectual optimism” reacted down Sunday night and gapped down Monday to test the 145-02 sell signal. That defined the lower-end, and keeps alive potential for a recovery above 145-25 to resume the rally.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Sunday night’s rally greeted Monday’s open testing the 1.1850 target. Price immediately reversed to probe negative territory down to 1.1793. The gap up above all prior highs is likely to be retested before a durable reversal down can gain traction.

Crude oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Trading up through $74.25 per barrel Sunday night was retraced to only fluctuate narrowly Monday. Coming so close to filling the gap back up to 74.82 doesn’t qualify as filling it, which remains likely before a durable reversal down would be credible.

Natural gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s bounce neutralized the attraction to “higher prior lows,” which was retested Sunday night, But Monday’s intraday slide tested 2.82, whose break would confirm a deeper downleg is underway.

About the Author

Rod David develops analytical techniques that are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He primarily analyzes S&Ps, generating several round-turn candidates daily. Rod publishes "Trading Plan" and more each session at the blog