Afternoon look at gold, crude & Treasuries

July 16, 2018 03:50 PM

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Bouncing overnight held 1245.50 resistance and reversed down through the morning to fill the gap back to Friday’s 1238.40 gap down. It required being filled after testing “higher prior lows,” but Monday’s inside day must await closing above Sunday night’s 1245.80 interim higher to signal momentum reversing up. Downside momentum otherwise remains intact.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Firming Sunday night to attack Friday’s 15.90 high was retraced entirely back down to Friday’s low attacking 15.75. This is neither a buy signal or a sell signal, but neither does it establish that Friday’s drop and optimistic low has yet attracted strong-handed buyers. Probing again above 15.90 would be credible for extending higher intraday, but the decline’s momentum otherwise remains intact.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Greeting the new week from the range’s 145-25 upper-end once again reversed back down to its 145-02 lower-end Monday morning. But the lower-end was also probed down to 144-23, albeit only momentarily before recovering back into the range. Only closing under 144-23 would signal a new downtrend underway.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Monday to test 1.1770 resistance reacted down to 1.1750 support, which held  and  almost recovered 1.1770 again. Extending higher Tuesday would next target filling last Monday’s gap open back up to the 1.1850 original corrective bounce target.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s confirmed breakout from 74.00 had bounced Friday, but gapping down Monday extended intraday to fresh lows testing 67.60. The pattern’s minimum eventual third lower close is now fulfilled. More lower closes are pssible, but the bounce limit is now 69.60.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Bouncing Sunday night to 2.77 was reversed to fresh lows Monday morning at 2.73. A post-open bounce retraced the overnight highs. This stage of the decline cannot tolerate much if any delay to extending lower, to avoid at least a corrective bounce.

About the Author

Rod David develops analytical techniques that are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He primarily analyzes S&Ps, generating several round-turn candidates daily. Rod publishes "Trading Plan" and more each session at the blog