Estimates For Today’s USDA Report

Traders Focus On Upcoming USDA Report
Concerns regarding Corn and Soybean production remain
Corn Yield Range Estimate - Average 164.9
Grain futures market update

Grain futures market update

Corn Futures (December)

Fundamentals: Market participants have been waiting two long months for today’s report, below are the estimates. After the release of the report, 11am cst, and before the closing bell attention will turn back to the weather.

Planted Acres: Range 83.494-89.8, Average 87.998

Harvested Acres: Range 76.114-81.9, Average 80.05

Yield: Range 161.0-167.2, Average 164.9

Production: Range 12.723-13.55, Average 13.193

Technicals: Last week we saw prices grind higher, taking us into that significant resistance pocket from 418 ¼-420 ¾. This is a big pivot pocket for us, a close above or below could set the tone for the rest of the month. Though we remain friendly over the intermediate-term, we did write the following in Friday’s report: “For clients who are looking to hedge or have long positions from lower prices, this is not a bad spot to reduce risk.” The next resistance pocket above here comes in from 431 ¼-436 ¾. On the support side, there isn’t a lot until 397 ¼.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 418 ¼-420 ¾***, 431 ¼-436 ¾**, 447-450***

Support: 405 ½-409 ¼**, 395-397 ¼****, 376 ½-380****

 

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Soybeans Futures (November)

Fundamentals: Market participants have been waiting 2 long months for today’s report, below are the estimates. After the release of the report, 11am cst, and before the closing bell attention will turn back to the weather.

Planted Acres: Range 78.0-83.5, Average 81.006

Harvested Acres: Range 77.3-82.8, Average 79.89

Yield: Range 46.0-49.0, Average 47.6

Production: Range 3.633-3.974, Average 3.800

Technicals: The market rebounded nicely in the back half of last week’s trade, taking prices to our first resistance pocket defined as 889 ½-891 ¾. This pocket represents a key retracement, previous support, and the breakdown point from July 31st. If the bulls can achieve consecutive closes above here, perhaps we can see another leg higher. A failure against resistance keeps the trend of lower highs and lower lows intact. In Friday’s report we stated the following: “From the technical perspective, this is a spot for bulls to consider reducing long positions and shorts/hedgers to consider selling.”

Bias: Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 889 ½-891 ¾**, 900-904 ¼***, 921-924***

Support: 875-880***, 854 ½-860 ½****, 839 ¾-843 ¾**

Wheat Futures (September)

Fundamentals: All eyes will be on today’s USDA report, out at 11am cst. All wheat production is expected to come in near 1.928 billion bushels, up slightly from last month. The average estimate for US ending stocks is 998 million bushels, down slightly from last month. Money flow in the other grains will likely have an effect on price action in wheat too.

Technicals: Resistance remains intact from last week’s report, we have defined that as 507 ¼-509 ½. We believe the bear camp has a technical edge against this pocket until the bulls can achieve consecutive closes above. First support comes in near 490, but the more significant pocket comes in from 471 ¾-474 ¾.

Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Resistance: 507 ¼-509 ½****, 525 ¾-531 ½****

Support: 471 ¾-473 ¾***, 444½-446**, 427 ¼****

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