Crop Conditions Better and Threat of Early Frost Looks Minimal

Threat of Early Frost Looks Minimal
FC Stone released crop estimates - Corn production 13.80 billion bushels, average yield of 168.4
Soybean estimates production 3.661 billion bushels with a yield of 48.3
Grain futures market update

Grain futures market update

Corn Futures (December)
 

Fundamentals: December corn futures made new contract lows for the second straight day as the technical landscape remains bleak at best. On the fundamental side, there is not much better to say there. Crop conditions increased and the threat of an early frost looks minimal on the intermediate-term forecast. FC-Stone released their crop survey results, they estimate corn production to be 13.809 billion bushels with an average yield of 168.4, not that far off from the USDA’s 13.901 and 169.5. Demand continues to be a concern, above is a visual to put things in perspective (click to enlarge, courtesy of Karen Braun from Thomson Reuters). Due to Labor Day, the weekly export sales report will be released tomorrow at 7:30am CST.

Technicals: Not much has changed on the technical front over the last 24-hours as the bears remain in full control, in uncharted territory. The market is trying to firm in the morning, but that has been faded recently. The bulls need to see the market stabilize above previous contract lows to bring back the glimmer of hope for forming a bottom.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 377-381**, 392 ¾***, 405-407**

Pivot: 363 ¾

Support: 338 ¾-343**

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Soybeans Futures (November)

 

Fundamentals: Soybeans are stabilizing this week on the lack of bearish news and lingering concern over the late-planted crop. The USDA also announced a flash sale of 451,766 metric tons sold to Mexico, another silver lining on the demand front. FC-Stone released its crop estimates and have production at 3.661 billion bushels with a yield of 48.3, not far off from the USDA’s 3.68 and 48.5. Due to Labor Day, the weekly export sales report will be released tomorrow at 7:30am CST.

Technicals: On the technical side of things, the market is pressing up against first resistance, we have defined that as 880-882. If the bulls can chew through this pocket, we would look for an extension back towards 891 ½-896 ¾. Without a significant weather scare, that may be a bit of a brick wall. We remain cautiously optimistic with our bias still at Neutral/Bullish.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 880-882**, 891 ½-896 ¾***, 921-924***

Support: 852 ½-856 ½****, 839 ¾-843 ¾**, 815 ½****

 

Wheat Futures (December)

Fundamentals: Chicago wheat futures recovered well yesterday, leading to overnight and early morning strength today. Due to Labor Day, the weekly export sales report will be released tomorrow at 7:30am CST. We continue to believe that rallies will be a relief and not much more until we see a shift in money flow and technicals.

Technicals: Chicago wheat has been working hard to work higher, widening the spread with the KC contract. The market is working above our pivot point at 460 which opens the door for a run at 483 ½. That will be a battleground area for the bulls and bears. A conviction close above could be trend changing.

Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Resistance: 483 ½**, 493-500****, 525 ¾-531 ½****

Pivot: 460

Support: 442-446**, 427 ¼****

 

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