U.S. Presidential Election Results, Covid-19 Cases Rise and Demand Concerns for Cocoa

November 16, 2020 01:11 PM
Changes in regard to Covid-19 to create volatility in all markets
Cocoa is dealing with continued demand issues
Weather patterns in West Africa could be causing concerns for production
Cocoa Futures Update

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The U.S. markets started the week off with a positive tone, surging higher on election results and a potential Covid-19 vaccine breakthrough from Pfizer. As indices moved higher, most commodities followed suit. This rally was short-lived due to the growing number of Covid-19 cases in the U.S. and worldwide. Europe has implemented lockdowns; the U.S. is rolling back restrictions in certain areas due to the rise in positive tests – these changes will add volatility to all markets in the short-term. Until a vaccine is approved and available to the public, anticipate this pattern for months to come. 

Cocoa is already dealing with demand issues; with lockdowns in Europe and the closing of indoor dining in parts of the U.S., cocoa futures could see more downside. Demand for chocolate is critical this time of year – Hershey and Barry Callebaut may be seeing the 4th quarter a little more positive than anticipated, which can help cocoa prices rise heading into 2021. 

Weather patterns in West Africa could be causing concerns for production in that region. If this holds, support could be seen on the chart at these current levels.

March Daily Chart

March Daily Chart

Source: Tradingview

If you are interested in discussing the soft commodities contact pmooses@rjofutures.com

About the Author

Peter Mooses is a commodity broker at RJO Futures. He enjoys the analytical aspects of futures trading and appreciates the economic impact that commodities have across all markets. Peter utilizes market analysis and trends to help clients achieve a balance between risk and return, while always keeping their investment objectives top of mind. Follow Peter on Twitter @PMoosesRJO