There is mixed sentiment towards the Greenback at the start of the new trading week. The dollar has edged marginally higher against the euro, the pound and the Australian dollar with the Greenback broadly stronger against those in the EMEA as all eyes return to the Lira after Turkish markets resume trading following a week-long holiday.
While the speed of selling has slowed down compared to the early part of the week, emerging market currencies have continued to show weakness in the early hours of Thursday morning. The Thai Baht, Malaysian Ringgit, Chinese yuan, Indonesian Rupiah and Indian Rupee are all trading lower at time of writing.
All eyes are on the Turkish Lira this morning with the currency rallying sharply in early trade today, following the news that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has won the weekend election in Turkey. The Lira had advanced as much as 3% at time of writing with the currency currently standing as the only emerging market to be trading higher against the U.S. dollar.
In a week where market headlines continue to be driven by a potential trade war breaking out between the United States and China along with the latest OPEC meeting in Vienna, traders are unable to ignore the likelihood that the upcoming weekend election in Turkey could create further volatility in the financial markets.
The anticipation of a drastic shift in OPEC’s mindset is quite puzzling to most when you consider that the previous theme heading into meetings was how much production output could possibly be cut from the market. This focus has suddenly been replaced with anxiety over how much supply could potentially be added back into the market.
It is expected that the latest installment of concerns over the United States and China entering a potential trade war will encourage global stock markets to come under pressure this week. Some indications of risk aversion are already being seen in the markets, with the Japanese yen gaining as a result of market uncertainty and a number of different Asian currencies trading lower due to reduced investor appetite.
Singapore will be considered as the capital of the world for at least the early part of this week. The unprecedented summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Singapore is considered a major event in the financial markets and we can expect that it will be closely monitored by investors around the globe.
Matters just continue to go from bad to worse for the Turkish Lira. The currency is in complete freefall and the outlook is still that there is an increased risk of further losses ahead. This is despite the Lira being crippled by meeting new historic lows on a near-daily basis as of late, a consequence of investors having an extreme lack of confidence in Turkish assets.