From $145 to $35 to $115 to nearly $25 and now to back above $70, the price action in the oil market has been a roller coaster for a full decade now, and the question on every trader’s mind is “how far will we rise before dumping again…and what does that mean for other markets?”
Our quarterly Inflation Report sets out the economic analysis and inflation projections that the Monetary Policy Committee uses to make its interest rate decisions.
After starting the year with a yield near below 2.5%, the benchmark 10-year bond has seen yields surge to a high of nearly 3.05%, corresponding to about a year-to-date drop of about 3% in IEF, the equivalent treasury bond ETF.
In terms of fundamental factors supporting the greenback, the new-look Federal Reserve’s struck a more upbeat note about the economy lately, mirroring the improvement in the underlying data.
With geopolitical theatre (trade war posturing, central bank comments, FBI raids of Presidential lawyers, etc) grabbing all the headlines this week, it’s easy to forget that there is still some potentially market-moving economic data scheduled for release.
Based on the continuing uptrend in the stock market, investors are relatively unperturbed despite of a highly possible government shutdown. As they are now, U.S. stocks were in a prolonged uptrend heading into the shutdown.
The primary global macroeconomic theme that prompted the most significant moves in the currency markets this past week was clearly central bank activity.
