While the markets await the outcome from the Fed meeting and oil traders fret about whether OPEC and non-OPEC might raise production, as well as the weekly supply report, the biggest threat to the price of crude oil and the global economy may be the lack of spare oil production capacity. Reuters reports that global spare oil production capacity could fall from more than 3% of global demand now to about 2%, its lowest since at least 1984, if OPEC, Russia and other producers decide to increase output when they meet on June 22-23. Some analysts say spare capacity could even fall below 2%, after years of low oil prices drove down investments in new production across the industry to a historic low.
With the movie "Trading Places" celebrating 30 years this year and the upcoming launch of our own video and movie player, Alpha TV, we looked back at our list of Top Trading Movies. We took a crack at this last year, but here are our revised and expanded choices.
Happy golden spiral day! Am I the only one who celebrates this day? Many people don’t know it exists, but it is part of the seasonal change point time window that impacts all markets on a cycle basis. What is golden spiral day? It is June 18, simply put 6.18.
President Donald Trump is fed up with crude oil prices and tweeted that “oil prices are too high, OPEC is at it again. Not good!” The Fed raised interest rates and Fed Chair Jerome Powell weighed in on oil and its impact on inflation and what they may mean for the economy going forward. This comes as surging U.S. refinery demand for oil shadowed over a 100,000-barrel a day increase in U.S. oil production.
The U.S. dollar gained against all major pairs this week. A hawkish Fed and a dovish European Central Bank (ECB) gave the edge to the American currency. U.S. President Donald Trump scored diplomacy points in Singapore by meeting with North Korean leader Kim. Trade war fears were once again at the forefront as the Trump administration announced new tariffs on Chinese goods on Friday. Crude oil prices plunged as supply might be on the rise with heavy anticipation on the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries meeting on Friday.
The coming week (June 18-22) should continue the trend of trending symbols. The only potential exceptions are gold and soybeans whose weekly pivots are sideways for reversal scalpers and who already made a wide-range move likely to consolidate sideways. However, both gold and beans have trending monthly pivots--a wild card working against my Iron Condor favorite trade.