The latest "saber rattling" surrounding nuclear tensions between the U.S. and North Korea continues to dominate the headlines, and some level of concern about the situation is certainly justified. While we still expect cooler heads to prevail, there's certainly an elevated risk that a miscalculation or miscommunication on either side could lead to disaster.
The October contract has risen 5.25 off their lows from the 1st. This is not that unusual. As noted all last week, the market often does not like to the August expire and the next contract out hold such a steep discount to current cash prices. We can argue all we want that this discount is needed, and may, in fact, be too small based on the supply change coming, but that does not matter. From a simple optics perspective, a $20 discount is too much.
The U.S. consumer price index measure of inflation rose 0.1% month-over-month in July but failed to match expectations of a 0.2% rise as we had envisaged in our Australian dollar/U.S. dollar (AUD/USD) currency pair report earlier.