Pound bulls hoping to see a big beat on the July inflation numbers were left disappointed, as the data merely met expectations. Although off its lows, sterling remained under pressure after breaking the $1.27 handle overnight following yesterday’s news of weaker-than-expected growth in wages, and amid ongoing concerns over a no-deal Brexit outcome.
A bearish American Petroleum Institute (API) report, as well as the continuing drama surrounding Turkey is raising fears of a slowdown in oil demand based upon fears of raising contagion coming out of Turkey. The oil market that tried to mount a major comeback yesterday was thwarted by a risk aversion in the dollar that sunk oil, as well as industrial and precious metals.
The Eurodollar, as I mentioned in my weekly ranges article, has already made 5 down waves in a zig-zag formation/configuration. It has already gone, “down-up-down-up-down” off the monthly chart and is hovering over the daily 1,000-moving average and weekly 200-moving average, in addition to Gann support levels.
After a rough start to the week, Asian stocks seem to have found some support as the Turkish Lira steadied below 7 per dollar. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 1.8% with all sectors in green territory as the Yen gave up some of yesterday’s gains. Australia’s ASX 200 and the Korean KOSPI also edged higher but gains were limited.
This morning brings a reprieve from turmoil; the Turkish Lira has bounced back as much as 8% before settling in. The story will continue to develop and an agreement to release the American pastor will certainly be favorable for the global risk appetite. While the damage to the world’s currency market has been done, we maintain that it is important to not get stuck in the forest so that you can see the trees; there can be a lot of noise in the headlines, especially during slower summer months.
The markets were a little calmer in the first half of today’s session as the Turkish lira finally stopped falling, while the pound staged a short-lived bounce in the aftermath of mixed-bag UK data. The dollar was little changed, rising most notably against the yen thanks to the slight reduction in risk aversion. Stocks rebounded but were again coming under pressure at the time of writing. Oil prices rose but gold and silver remained near yesterday’s lows following their big slide.
The crude oil and petroleum markets took a Turkish bath yesterday, but in doing so it may have washed out the bearishness and put in our seasonal low. The moves in the market seemed beyond crazy because at the end of the day the Turkish currency crisis is a much more political than financial crisis. Oil moved on the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, lowering its demand forecast and fears of a rise in supply, but it was Turkey that cleansed the market.