The U.S. dollar was higher across the board against major pairs on Friday. Trade war concerns rose heading into the weekend and the comments from U.S. President Donald Trump during the week sparked a rally of USD buying. Trump has been outspoken on NATO, trade and the Brexit deal while economic indicators and the US Fed have been supportive of the greenback.
The coming week, starting Monday, July 16, should present more sideways markets than breakouts, although gold and the Eurodollar currently (as of Friday morning on July 13) have pivots with breakout lower setups. Of course, the Eurodollar extreme candle reversal up signal and the gold moving average supports on multiple time frames with bullish candlestick patterns can cause a lower-pivots rejection in each/either symbol. Such a rejection would be bullishly volatile, whilst various groups of traders would, in theory, battle it out.
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We are coming to the next phase of the divergence. I woke up this morning, turned on the box and first commentator I saw said we’ve started the next leg up in the bull market. Some of these people take it for granted the market is going up again. Has anyone noticed the Dow and SPX peaked in January?
The U.S. dollar fell against major pairs on Friday despite a strong June jobs report due to the impending start of tariffs against Chinese goods and the retaliation from the Asian nation on U.S. exports. The U.S. economy added 213,000 jobs and wages rose 0.2% but it is the threat of trade war escalation that put pressure on the U.S. currency.
The coming week (July 13) should yield an array of trending bullish breakouts, upticks, and up-to-sideways plays (except bearish-sideways crude oil). How are we going to know which bull trades to take/place that are clear signals or high-probability wins? I don’t know. I can lay out the information I have for informed/educated reader decisions that include the countertrade perspectives.
This is supposed to be a seasonally bullish period. From the end of quarter window dressing through the July 4 holiday the stock market tilts to the bullish side; not always or every year but generally speaking. Why the markets are open on July 4 is another story, but consider the first and last hour without the midday doldrums.
The coming week (July 1-5) should consolidate in about half of the symbols I track., but some inside-pivots breakouts show as setups in the charts. The S&P 500, yen, Eurodollar (slightly-higher pivots) and gold have trending weekly pivots for next week, meaning conditions are right for fewer directional turns and twists in these and wide-ranges are likely.
The U.S. dollar is higher against most major currencies on Friday. The Canadian dollar was the single currency that appreciated versus the greenback. The loonie moved higher at the end of the week with the release of a stronger than expected monthly GDP number. The softer trade comments also helped dissipate the risk aversion sentiment lifting the Canadian currency.