My euro bear trade hit all targets early, and I anticipated a Wave Two bounce, but the yen is the symbol tossing a three-day chart hammer candlestick my way on my projected weekly lows and Camarilla pivots (weekly and monthly), with overhead targets of 0.009250-.009300 are expected should it rally.
Are you sad to see April go? I’m not because April showers usually lead to May flowers. Am I in the Twilight Zone or did I actually see the two leaders of the Koreas hug this week? That’s incredible. If you think about it, how many times have I come here in the past year warning about some geopolitical problem on the peninsula that could blow up the stock market?
The U.S. dollar had massive weekly gains against all majors. The release of the gross domestic product for the first quarter of 2018 beat expectations but did little for a dollar that had rallied all week. Dovish central bank rhetoric from the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan have increased the anticipation for the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday, May 2 at 2:00 p.m. EDT.
As markets digest new pricing in many symbols, my pivot and range math for next week indicate sideways range plays may go on for days. So, set your scalper’s chart grids and get ready for some Iron Condor possibilities! However, some trending may occur above/below my weekly-based options perspective or symbol list.
What a very strange week. Last Wednesday the Transports led to the upside while the Dow lagged. You’ll recall the Dow lagged because IBM got clobbered on their earnings report. Also, the BKX along with Goldman Sachs flattened out. Goldman is still moving to the downside. Why is this important? IBM is the 9th weighted stock in the Dow while Goldman Sachs is number two.
The euro/U.S. dollar/U.S. dollar currency pair lost 0.34% during the last five days. The single currency is trading at 1.2288 as investors await the ECB to keep rates and quantitive easing unchanged on Thursday, April 26 at 8:30 am. Trade war fears and actual war concerns waned this week after putting downward pressure on the U.S. dollar.
The United States led a coordinated effort, along with Britain and France, to strike specific targets in Syria on Friday night. This was the culmination of what began as a horrific chemical attack carried out by forces aligned with the Syrian government on a town held by Syrian rebels last weekend.
Markets rallied to key resistance levels and have to make an important decision this week. After two weeks of testing the bottom and coming to the middle of the range, will they fade here or go to the top of the range? It’s a mixed market with the Transports gapping up to start the week, but oil seems to have found a near-term high but violated the high it made earlier in the year.
The U.S. dollar lost against most majors even if it appreciated against safe-haven currencies on Friday. The Syrian conflict concerns faded at the end of the week and boosted the USD versus the JPY and the CHF. The release of the meeting notes from the March Federal Open Market Committee proved to be a positive for the American currency as the Fed was more hawkish than expected. Next up for the markets will be the release of retail sales data in the United States and the Bank of Canada (BoC) rate statements.
Regarding this week’s forecast, I noted that the British pound, the euro and crude looked bullish, and they behaved so. The projected range in crude offered a good reversal trade level into Wed. Also, my list of breakout symbols (Canadian dollar, crude oil, the pound and the S&P 500) produced pricing outside the prior week’s ranges. As a monthly chart follow-up, VIX futures are forming an inverted hammer, while Ten-year T-Notes formed a reversal long signal last month.