The U.S. dollar is lower against major pairs only appreciating against the Swiss franc (CHF) and the Japanese yen (JPY). The greenback got a small boost from the release of the U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP). The United States added 148,000 well below expectations but with the hourly wages rising 0.3% but that was not good enough to counter positive economic indicators released in Europe and the stronger jobs report in Canada.
Speculators are approaching the new year with an eye toward stock market gains and a tightening Federal Reserve. This is a tough combination for interest rate futures to rally against. However, commercial traders are holding their most bullish position since last April.
U.S. markets started where they left off for 2017. Initially, it didn’t look like this would happen. For the week between Christmas and New Year’s, the action was very questionable and by Friday they started selling.
The rubber finally meets the road, the Senate could vote on tax reform as early as Thursday. For a moment, lets assume it passes, then the House and Senate would have to hammer out a compromise. As we watch this drama play out, it is likely the best argument for term limits as it has become painfully obvious they support special interests as opposed to the business of the people.
Markets dodged another bullet as Irma was bad but not as bad as it could’ve been. That’s not to make light of the situation, it was a category 6 just the other day. But before any of you get excited Jesse Colombo @thebubblebubble tweeted a report from calculatedriskblog.com that Harvey could result in 300,000 new mortgage delinquencies.
We’ve reached the moment of truth. Many moments of truth; something is going to happen this month. The only question is whether the stock market crowd is going to keep their heads in the sand. With everything swirling around I can’t imagine how that’s possible.
The U.S. dollar is mixed against majors after staging a comeback late in the week. The USD regained some ground even though the biggest indicator in the market the U.S. non farm payrolls (NFP) report disappointed by adding less than the expected number of jobs (156,000 versus 180,000) but the data point that had more significance was the low pace of growth of wages at 0.1%. A third rate hike for U.S. interest rates could be pushed back to next year if inflation does not pick up convincing the Federal Reserve.
Do you believe in Christmas in August? Better get used to it, we are upon the traditionally slowest volume week of the year other than Christmas. This year, a lot is going on which is simmering under the surface. We may just get a break from it this week.
The U.S. dollar is lower against most majors as the central bank summit in Jackson Hole kicked off. The Euro has regained January 2015 levels on Friday. Fed Chair Janet Yellen, in what could be her last appearance at the Wyoming gathering as chief of the U.S. central bank, focused on financial regulation with limited comments on monetary policy.
Last week I told you risk for the markets was off the charts. Last week Google is down 1.5%, FB down marginally, Amazon down 2%, AAPL up marginally and NFLX down 5%. Biotech is down 2.9% as is housing. These are not big numbers, but when you look at some of these charts we are starting to see technical damage for the first time in a long time.