Lack of demand continues to pull cocoa prices lower. The chart looks bearish, and short-term outlook for demand is bleak.

Fundamentally, cocoa has been one of the hardest hit commodities of late. Adding and removing shutdowns have created volatility in cocoa, and the recent pullback in May cocoa can create opportunities for traders: there’s clear support on the chart and a reversal may be forming.

For cocoa, a global economic recovery and reopening of businesses and events can only help the market. A soft commodity like cocoa is heavily reliant on demand, and demand for cocoa has slowed.

Cocoa specifically has been greatly affected by lockdowns. Chocolate companies continue to report weaker data during the pandemic, as consumers have shifted their income towards necessities. 

This time of year, we typically see a boost in chocolate sales for the Valentine’s Day holiday, but this year is a little different.

The macro-sentiment of late has been slowly moving in a positive direction as more is learned about the vaccination process. More reopenings and fewer lockdowns will be supportive for the “foods” prices in commodities.

2021 could see a commodity bull market return— soybeans would be a commodity to watch. There are plenty of fundamental stories to keep the trade interesting, as well as solid technicals to guide investors as prices continue to climb.

Although we turned the calendar to a new year, most of our market stories have remained the same.

The grain complex has been extremely volatile over the last 4-6 months, with soybeans rallying over $4.50 and corn $1.60.

As we near the end of 2020, analysts start to dissect and predict certain possibilities in the new year.