The year started out much as it ended with a nice little buy signal, which developed on Friday the Jan. 29, which was the last trading day of the year but did not kick in until the first trading day of the year. There were several signals, but you can see how it developed on the Russell as we had a 35% retracement at a 1535 low. The party continues.
U.S. markets started where they left off for 2017. Initially, it didn’t look like this would happen. For the week between Christmas and New Year’s, the action was very questionable and by Friday they started selling.
It was a decent week for the stock market. Why? It could be because President Donald Trump was out of the country and the dialogue shifted away from scandal to geopolitics. The stock market didn’t have a chance to get upset as everyone took a breather from the growth agenda being interrupted. But he’s back and the domestic problems have not gone away. Who knows what they’ll come up with next.
The initial outcome on Sunday night had the YM gapping up but dropping lower immediately for the classic gap and fade. The ship steadied by Monday morning but it remained off the high. Elsewhere, the EUR/USD was a golden spiral 263 days off its high as of Friday’s close and the open on Sunday night was negligibly lower and by the morning drifting lower.
So, they got the Fed, now they’ll get the strange attractor. We have two days to go to get to the seasonal change point. It’s a strange year, not only because of the election ( you knew I was kidding) but because Christmas hits on a Sunday this year. That means we are still a full week shy and perhaps we don’t get the lighter Christmas volume that is characteristic of this time of year until the latter part of the week.
In my report to clients on Tuesday night many stocks seemed to have turned the corner from the recent sandwich pullback and I said it could be the start of the Santa rally. I’m not a rocket scientist. I merely asked myself a simple question. If not now, then when?
It was a short week but the takeaway is that every one of the time windows and cycle points were violated. I haven’t seen a situation like that on the daily timeframe in a long time. Even in China, which had the most bearish possible setup of all, we had violation.
A lot of cycle points to look at today. Last week the markets survived 377 trading days from the S&P 500 May 2015 high. In the very near term, futures charts survived 161 hours up from the election low. The E-mini S&P 500 hit a new high 1,444 hours from the prior high in August and it has slightly backed off. The last one to report to you is the overall market is 720 hours from the Brexit low mid session Monday.