Have we reached the zero hour? Time windows don’t have to validate although much of the time they do. I can tell you one thing, we have a very interesting news event at day 610 off the February 2016 bottom. U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian president Vladimir Putin are meeting as I’m writing this. In any era, when the two superpowers meet face to face it’s a big deal. Given everything, we’ve been through the past couple of years its an even bigger deal.
We are coming to the next phase of the divergence. I woke up this morning, turned on the box and first commentator I saw said we’ve started the next leg up in the bull market. Some of these people take it for granted the market is going up again. Has anyone noticed the Dow and SPX peaked in January?
This is supposed to be a seasonally bullish period. From the end of quarter window dressing through the July 4 holiday the stock market tilts to the bullish side; not always or every year but generally speaking. Why the markets are open on July 4 is another story, but consider the first and last hour without the midday doldrums.
The market has been up ever since the S&P 500 (SPX) hit 133-360 minute bars off the top. Prior to that it hit 133 bars on a 180 chart. Prior to that the first leg down was 340 points which found a low at 2532.69. I think that debunks the random walk crowd’s view of all market moves being random for the rest of time. Think about this for a minute.
The verdict is in, but I could be wrong. As you knowm, I analyze so many calculations that it’s almost to the point of being robotic. But there is a human element to the markets as well. Really? Here’s the bottom line. The stock market is not behaving well. Markets don’t automatically reveal themselves. It's like poker, they give you certain "tells." With humans, when relationships aren’t going well, you look for ways to salvage. Forgiveness is important to overcoming problems when it comes to people.
Here we are at the most important trading week of the entire year. You’ll never hear about this on the business channels, but Gann designated the March change of season as the most pivotal cycle point for markets of the entire year. Longtime readers of this column know I’ve come up with all kinds of names for it through the years.
The year started out much as it ended with a nice little buy signal, which developed on Friday the Jan. 29, which was the last trading day of the year but did not kick in until the first trading day of the year. There were several signals, but you can see how it developed on the Russell as we had a 35% retracement at a 1535 low. The party continues.
U.S. markets started where they left off for 2017. Initially, it didn’t look like this would happen. For the week between Christmas and New Year’s, the action was very questionable and by Friday they started selling.
It was a decent week for the stock market. Why? It could be because President Donald Trump was out of the country and the dialogue shifted away from scandal to geopolitics. The stock market didn’t have a chance to get upset as everyone took a breather from the growth agenda being interrupted. But he’s back and the domestic problems have not gone away. Who knows what they’ll come up with next.