The coffee market offers a very attractive risk-adjusted return from the long side given a very compelling set of bullish long-term indicators and patterns. Currently, there is an extremely speculative short position as a percentage of open interest in coffee as measured by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Commitments of Traders data.
Crude oil and coffee set commercial trader net position records in November. WTI crude oil set records in both net and total position sizes. The WTI market has remained under $60 per barrel since November of 2015. May of 2016 saw the Baker Hughes rig count bottom at 318. There were nearly 1,500 rigs up and running in Q4 of 2015 when oil prices began falling precipitously. Currently, about 750 rigs are operating. This metric has been steady since early May of 2017.