Soybeans have traded as much as 58 cents off of Friday’s lows in the early morning session. There has been renewed hope on the trade side of things, not just that China wouldn’t disappear but perhaps even start buying more agricultural products from the United States.
Weather continues to be a headline story, mostly due to the fact that there is not much else to report on at this point. There are chances for rain in Argentina later in the week, but we are in the camp that thinks it may be too little too late.
Crude oil prices dipped as trade war fears went away after a private report that appears to indicate that oil supplies may see a big increase this week. Genscape, the widely followed energy market data and intelligence company, reported that oil supply in Cushing, Okla., was up 2.18 million barrels last week. The increase and the fact that some of the Geo-Political concerns did not actually blow up into a supply disruption over the weekend led to a correction in the price of crude.
Export sales yesterday morning came in at 1,752,996 metric tons, this was well above the expected range from 1,000,000-1,500,000 metric tons. The bulls will want to see this become a longer-term trend to keep this market grinding higher. The corn market was also helped by spillover from the strength in soybeans and wheat.
In corn, export sales yesterday morning came in at 1,974,400 metric tons, well above the top end of expectations which ranged from 1,000,000-1,500,000 metric tons; last weeks read was 1,769,595 metric tons.
Friday offered a surprising report for corn seeing that funds had covered 89K shorts in just one week. While that still leaves funds short 131K it was quite a bit more active than expected. A knee-jerk reaction to that news is to lose some support as other speculators ease up on buying ahead of the funds. It's a simple idea that buying ahead of the funds when they are record short can offer a large potential for fund help to your buy order.
Soybeans started the year on an up note as all three legs of the complex closed higher; Friday's COT report showed funds were light buyers of 15,500 contracts, good news for corn bulls; Hard Red Winter Wheat regions are still under a barrage of cold weather and wind chill warnings.