Conference Board Consumer Confidence

Not since March has consumer confidence risen by as much, with the headline reading jumping 5.5-points to 94.5 for its highest reading since October 2007. The latest reading from the Conference Board marks a reversal from an unanticipated drop in September. In contrast to the earlier downbeat report on durable goods, the confidence report was spotted with positives. The headline reading was boosted mainly by consumers’ forward outlook.

The expectations index rose by the most in 16-months to its highest since February 2011. This optimism was matched by consumers’ attitude towards the labor market where developments saw improvement in the so-called labor market differential. This index increased to -12.6 from -13.1 and nets the number of respondents viewing the number of jobs as plentiful against those claiming they are hard to get. The change reverses the deterioration seen in September and is the best reading since August, possibly as the national rate of unemployment continues to show improvement.

However, within consumers’ spending intentions, there was little sign that rising confidence would boost consumption. Intentions to buy new or used cars remained at the lowest reading since April, while there was no sign that still low mortgage rates were boosting appetite to move homes.   

Chart shows confidence spike came mainly from expectations gauge