Bitcoin rebound might be nearing its end

January 23, 2015 01:51 PM

On BitStamp, Thursday brought yet another day of appreciation. Thursday also brought another day with a daily close above a recent possible declining trend line (marked in black in the above chart). Yesterday, we wrote:

“First of all, bitcoin moved just under 8% higher yesterday, a visible move but not necessarily one that would make anybody raise their brow, given the kind of volatility bitcoin has consistently managed to display.

Secondly, this was a third day with a close above the possible declining trend line, which combined with an increase in volume is more of a bullish development. But if we look at the actual volume level yesterday, it was not very high by bitcoin standards.

On the other hand, none of the moves up were strong enough to propel the cryptocurrency above $250 (solid green line in the chart). Today (this is written before 11:00 a.m. ET), we’ve seen more appreciation but it hasn’t really reached this level. Taking the recent developments into account, we would be inclined to think that bitcoin is still in a downtrend, that the short-term outlook has improved and a move to $250 might follow but this hasn’t really been strong enough to suggest any significant change.”

Friday has seen more depreciation—though it is weak—and lower volume than yesterday. This may be attributed to a pause within a move-up, but we have yet to see bitcoin above or close to $250. The situation seems to remain largely unchanged.

On the longer-term chart, bitcoin just touched a possible trend line. Is this an important sign? It might become one, but we would first need to see bitcoin move above this level and possibly in the direction of $250 (solid green line). The lack of strong movement suggests that the steam might be out of the market. Since the trend seems to be down now, it is possible that following the current period of appreciation bitcoin will resume its move down.

$250 is, in our opinion, the all-important level to observe. bitcoin might stagnate or still move further up, but these moves would likely be followed by more depreciation. The situation is bearish, but not enough so to open speculative positions. 

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About the Author

Mike McAra is a quantitative analyst focused on the economic reality, not theoretical models. His investment thinking is grounded on empirical evidence and common sense. Mike joined Sunshine Profits in 2009. He develops innovative investment tools, verifies usefulness of popular techniques, and provides thorough internal research.