Precious metals sector due for bounce but...

November 12, 2015 12:12 PM

After plunging in July, gold rallied in weak fashion and failed one last time at major resistance of $1180/oz. The flag projects to a downside target of roughly $1035/oz. Ultimately, the bear market could end at one of the two targets shown in the chart, $970/oz or $890/oz.


Sentiment indicators are one set of indicators that can help us gauge when gold is due for a rebound or when the bear market could end. In the chart below we include the GLD put-call ratio (smoothed with a 20-day moving average) and the net speculative position in the futures market. We measure that position as a percentage of open interest. As you can see, the two sentiment indicators are not yet close to bearish extremes.

The smoothed put-call ratio is at 0.74 which is well below the 1.10 level that has corresponded with the lows of the past two years. Meanwhile, the net speculative position of 35% (which I’m guessing will be below 25% after this week) remains way too high. Plenty of speculators are left to cut positions and push gold lower.


The final collapse or final capitulation in gold that has eluded us for a few years appears to be in motion. After an oversold bounce, gold should test support at $1080/oz and finally threaten the key $1000/oz support level. Last week we warned, "The specter of $950 to $1000 gold looms larger now and readers are advised to cut losses and prepare portfolios for the bearish scenario."

We took profits on our shorts Friday and will re-enter on strength. The conditions that will bring about a buying opportunity and the end of the bear market (extreme bearish sentiment, extreme oversold conditions and strong technical support) are not yet present but could develop in the weeks and months to come.

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