Most active investors say Trump victory will result in market decline, still prefer Trump presidency
The conventional wisdom is that active investors and market participants prefer Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump to maintain the seven-year stock market advance that began in 2008 and took out prior highs in 2013. According to a new election eve survey – that is only partially true.
A Modern Trader/Futures Magazine/Survey Monkey snap poll of 943 active and professional investors conducted over 48 hours ending Nov. 6, found that the majority of active investors expect a Trump victory to result in a market decline over the subsequent ninety days, yet still intend to vote for Trump on Tuesday...at a ratio of more than 2:1.
The majority of active investors polled intend to vote for Trump…
(Trump: 61%, Clinton: 26% Johnson 5%, Stein 1%, None of the above 7%. The survey has a 3% margin of error.)
Despite their support for Trump, the majority of active investors polled expect a Trump victory will result in an equity market decline over the 90 days following the election, and expect the market will respond more favorably to a Clinton win…
(Down less than 5%: 22%, Down more than 5%: 42%) (Down less than 5%: 13%, Down more than 5%: 21%)
When asked to forecast the election outcome, the majority of active investors polled expect a Trump victory…
Trump: 56%, Clinton 44%
The active investors that participated in the Modern Trader/Futures Magazine/Survey Monkey snap poll are:
- Male (93%), over the age of 30 (97%)
- Active traders (82% trade weekly, 53% daily…72% are individual traders, 28% are industry professionals)
- Educated (81% have college degrees, 45% have post-graduate degrees)
- High-income (74% have annual incomes exceeding $100K)
Most interesting were responses to whether this election been good for America? Here's what respondents had to say.