Most active investors say Trump victory will result in market decline, still prefer Trump presidency

November 7, 2016 10:38 AM

The conventional wisdom is that active investors and market participants prefer Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump to maintain the seven-year stock market advance that began in 2008 and took out prior highs in 2013. According to a new election eve survey – that is only partially true.

A Modern Trader/Futures Magazine/Survey Monkey snap poll of 943 active and professional investors conducted over 48 hours ending Nov. 6, found that the majority of active investors expect a Trump victory to result in a market decline over the subsequent ninety days, yet still intend to vote for Trump on a ratio of more than 2:1. 

The majority of active investors polled intend to vote for Trump…

(Trump: 61%, Clinton: 26% Johnson 5%, Stein 1%, None of the above 7%. The survey has a 3% margin of error.)

Despite their support for Trump, the majority of active investors polled expect a Trump victory will result in an equity market decline over the 90 days following the election, and expect the market will respond more favorably to a Clinton win…

                          (Down less than 5%: 22%, Down more than 5%: 42%)                          (Down less than 5%: 13%, Down more than 5%: 21%)


When asked to forecast the election outcome, the majority of active investors polled expect a Trump victory…

Trump: 56%, Clinton 44%

The active investors that participated in the Modern Trader/Futures Magazine/Survey Monkey snap poll are:

  • Male (93%), over the age of 30 (97%)
  • Active traders (82% trade weekly, 53% daily…72% are individual traders, 28% are industry professionals)
  • Educated (81% have college degrees, 45% have post-graduate degrees)
  • High-income (74% have annual incomes exceeding $100K)

Most interesting were responses to whether this election been good for America? Here's what respondents had to say.

Electorate should start thinking of having a few more main stream parties other than 2.

11/6/2016 10:06 AM

The Republican party needs reforming--get back to being pro-business, pro-risk and entrepreunship and dump the stupid anti-acts science stuff.

11/6/2016 10:05 AM

Bias of the liberal media has been exposed. Also, the collusion between all the major players Democratic Party to quit the president ,department of justice and the Clinton foundation has also been exposed can't ever be hidden again.

11/6/2016 6:40 AM

The real purpose of elections is to find common ground and mutually agreeable policies; to build consensus and confidence. This has been the least effective election since Lincoln, and the entire process itself is being rejected. FCR / Marina del Rey, CA

11/5/2016 8:58 PM

This is the best America has to offer for president? The most pwerful person in the free world. I suspect the world has taken notice. Good luck to us all. TW Mpls/MN

11/5/2016 6:12 PM
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