Modern Trader readers predict election results

November 9, 2016 07:30 AM

Modern Trader/Futures Magazine/Survey Monkey snap poll of 943 active and professional investors conducted over 48 hours ending Nov. 6, found that the majority of active investors expected a Trump victory. They also said that a Trump victory will result in an equity market decline over the 90 days following the election. 

Trump: 56%, Clinton 44%

The active investors that participated in the Modern Trader/Futures Magazine/Survey Monkey snap poll are:

  • Male (93%), over the age of 30 (97%)
  • Active traders (82% trade weekly, 53% daily…72% are individual traders, 28% are industry professionals)
  • Educated (81% have college degrees, 45% have post-graduate degrees)
  • High-income (74% have annual incomes exceeding $100K)
     

The majority of active investors polled intended to vote for Trump…

(Trump: 61%, Clinton: 26% Johnson 5%, Stein 1%, None of the above 7%. The survey has a 3% margin of error.)
 

The conventional wisdom was that active investors and market participants preferred Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump to maintain the seven-year stock market advance that began in 2008 and took out prior highs in 2013. According to our election eve survey – that is only partially true. 

Despite their support for Trump, the majority of active investors polled expect that a Trump victory will result in an equity market decline over the 90 days following the election, and expect the market will respond more favorably to a Clinton win…

  (Down less than 5%: 22%, Down more than 5%: 42%)                          (Down less than 5%: 13%, Down more than 5%: 21%)
 

Most interesting were responses to whether this election been good for America? Here's what respondents had to say.

Electorate should start thinking of having a few more main stream parties other than 2.

11/6/2016 10:06 AM

The Republican party needs reforming--get back to being pro-business, pro-risk and entrepreunship and dump the stupid anti-acts science stuff.

11/6/2016 10:05 AM

Bias of the liberal media has been exposed. Also, the collusion between all the major players Democratic Party to quit the president ,department of justice and the Clinton foundation has also been exposed can't ever be hidden again.

11/6/2016 6:40 AM

The real purpose of elections is to find common ground and mutually agreeable policies; to build consensus and confidence. This has been the least effective election since Lincoln, and the entire process itself is being rejected. FCR / Marina del Rey, CA

11/5/2016 8:58 PM

This is the best America has to offer for president? The most pwerful person in the free world. I suspect the world has taken notice. Good luck to us all. TW Mpls/MN

11/5/2016 6:12 PM
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