Will stars shine on gold?
March 6, 2018 09:20 AM
If history is any guide, the currency channel should eventually outweigh the safe-haven channel. Look at the chart below, which shows gold prices around the 2017 French presidential election.
Chart 3: Gold prices (yellow line, left axis, London P.M. Fix, in $) and the EUR/USD exchange rate (red line, right axis) from March 2017 to February 2018.
As one can see, the price of gold rose before the first round of the French presidential election at the end of April, while the euro weakened. But when Macron advanced to the second round, the price of gold dropped, while the euro rebounded. In May, when Macron finally won, the yellow metal rallied in tandem with the euro.
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