U.S. Employment Situation Looks Strong Despite Lower ADP Payrolls Report

September 2, 2021 08:50 AM
Stock Market Update for Traders

Stock Market Update for Traders

Wednesday's Close

E-mini S&P 500 Futures (September): Settled at 4521.25, up 0.75

E-mini Nasdaq-100 Futures (September): Settled at 15,609.25, up 26.75

U.S. benchmarks are again pointing higher after strength overnight. However, this week, price action has struggled to hold highs through the entirety of the U.S. session as it digests a vicious rally over the last 2 weeks. 

As we noted here yesterday, jobs are front and center. ADP Payrolls came in well below expectations at 374,000 versus 613,000, but it’s important to note the ongoing differences between the private survey and the official Nonfarm Payroll report due this Friday. Over the last 3 months, CNBC noted an average difference of 337,000 jobs between the reports. 

This morning, Challenger Job Cuts came in at 15,723, near the record low of set in 1997 of 15,100; this signals hiring is sticky. Weekly Jobless Claims came in at a new pandemic low of 340,000, below expectations of 345,000. Unit Labor Costs were higher than expected and Nonfarm Productivity was lower than expected: this exudes a tightening situation. Expectations for tomorrow’s Nonfarm Payroll report are for 750,000 jobs created in August.

Elsewhere on the economic calendar, we look to Factory Orders for July at 9:00 a.m. CT. Also, 2 2021 Fed voters speak this afternoon. First, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks at noon CT. Yesterday, the evolving hawk pointed to worries on evictions slowing the economy. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly is seen as a moderate, she speaks at 2:00 p.m. CT.

In Europe, PPI came in hotter than expected at 12.1% YoY and 2.3% MoM for July. Also, China and a U.S. climate envoy are meeting, and traders should keep an ear to the ground on those developments.

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