The market has been up ever since the S&P 500 (SPX) hit 133-360 minute bars off the top. Prior to that it hit 133 bars on a 180 chart. Prior to that the first leg down was 340 points which found a low at 2532.69. I think that debunks the random walk crowd’s view of all market moves being random for the rest of time. Think about this for a minute.
What a very strange week. Last Wednesday the Transports led to the upside while the Dow lagged. You’ll recall the Dow lagged because IBM got clobbered on their earnings report. Also, the BKX along with Goldman Sachs flattened out. Goldman is still moving to the downside. Why is this important? IBM is the 9th weighted stock in the Dow while Goldman Sachs is number two.
You can’t say I didn’t warn you. Week after week I’d come here while the bubble kept inflating and inflating. Sooner or later the market was going to wake up.
Last week I told you risk for the markets was off the charts. Last week Google is down 1.5%, FB down marginally, Amazon down 2%, AAPL up marginally and NFLX down 5%. Biotech is down 2.9% as is housing. These are not big numbers, but when you look at some of these charts we are starting to see technical damage for the first time in a long time.
Right now, the FANG stocks are getting hit. The question is whether there will be follow through. But other sink holes in the market are developing. The Transports got smashed on Thursday and it was only three weeks ago they gave the Dow a Dow theory confirmation when both went to new highs. On Thursday and again Friday the Dow itself hit new all-time highs. You see the trannies going the other way so this is becoming the classic non-confirmation.
It’s been a long season of disappointment for the bears. Chalk up another one. Once again, the Dow came to edge and didn’t jump. Tuesday was the big day. Markets started dropping like a rock on the apparent news of yet another “Russian collusion scandal” involving Trump’s son. You know all about it. But by the time it started turning up news broke the Senate decided to stay in session for the better part of August. Markets turned up and fully recovered.