Cocoa continues its recent downtrend, a trend which was accelerated after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell announced that a rate hike would come sooner than expected for the U.S.
Looking at a July cocoa chart, you can see the lack of direction. After a recovery in May, most of the rally has been given back. Recent consolidation has traders confused on cocoa’s next move.
July cocoa has continued to move lower over the past few sessions. Traders have experienced a choppy few weeks of trading after a small “V” in the chart. Demand is slightly on the rise as more easing occurs in the UK and the U.S.
For now, traders should continue to monitor the equity markets, currencies, and macro reports being released to gage how far into the “recovery” we are.
Fundamentally, cocoa has been one of the hardest hit commodities of late. Adding and removing shutdowns have created volatility in cocoa, and the recent pullback in May cocoa can create opportunities for traders: there’s clear support on the chart and a reversal may be forming.
For cocoa, a global economic recovery and reopening of businesses and events can only help the market. A soft commodity like cocoa is heavily reliant on demand, and demand for cocoa has slowed.
Cocoa specifically has been greatly affected by lockdowns. Chocolate companies continue to report weaker data during the pandemic, as consumers have shifted their income towards necessities.
The macro-sentiment of late has been slowly moving in a positive direction as more is learned about the vaccination process. More reopenings and fewer lockdowns will be supportive for the “foods” prices in commodities.
