Traders were glued to Twitter waiting for any news release from Donald Trump. Twitter has become a more reliable source of breaking news.
Crude oil is being driven by more plotlines than an afternoon soap opera. With upcoming sanctions on Iran, the Fed on pace for gradual interest rate increases, strikes in the North Sea and a big drop in the U.S. oil rig count (which fell by 9 rigs, the biggest drop since May of 201), there is enough drama for both the bulls and the bears.
If you get the dollar right, you will get a lot of things right. Hard-lined policy in Washington has created a safe-haven flight to the dollar. Trade policy and sanctions have resonated an uncertain atmosphere for growth in many areas of the world
Commodities tried to turn the corner on reports of low-level talks about a framework to end the trade war and this made everyone realize that perhaps some of the fears of the backlash from a trade war were overblown. China is feeling the pain of the trade war while the United States looks to be gaining. If recent trade trends continue, it is possible that the United States may find it harder and harder to lift tariffs.
Snapback after a whack, give a dog a bone, this old man comes rolling home. It looked doomy and gloomy in crude oil for a while as trade war fears and reports of increases in OPEC and Russian oil production weighed on market psyche. Yet, after a report about another drop in supply in the Cushing, Okla., delivery point, and talk that U.S. oil production is not what it was reported to be, the mood quickly shifted.
President Franklin Roosevelt is famous for the statement, “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.” It is one of the most repeated presidential quotes. It basically suggests that decisions born of fear often turn out bad, sometimes even disastrous.
We’re seeing a slightly risk-averse tone in financial markets at the start of the week after the trade spat between the United States and China ramped up over the weekend.
It’s been a relatively mixed start to trading in Europe on Friday and the United States is on course to post small losses at the open, as the focus shifts from central banks back to trade.
Crude oil is trying to hold ground after Friday’s fear-based market sell-off. Tariff fears and then talks of global growth fears after a sub-par jobs report, not to mention a rising rig count, sent oil lower. Yet, we also have current strong demand, falling OPEC productions and a possibility of a major reaction by the United States after Syria allegedly crossed the chemical weapons line in the sand.
The crude oil sell-off was just downright crazy. Oil got caught up in trade war fears, tech wreck fears, OPEC/Non-OPEC compliance fears, and a build in Cushing, Okla., oil stocks, as reported by Genscape. Stocks had the worst start to April since 1929, but really the magnitude of this sell off was a big April’s Fools Day joke that just one day late.